Although we all consider ourselves to be at least reasonably good at coming to the correct decision however we go about it, it has been shown that for most of us the way we come to decisions is flawed. In this series of articles we are looking at some ways in which we can improve the ways in which we make decisions and applying this to gambling. The first step is to make an informed choice of casino. Try www.onlinecasinobonus.co.uk for some great comparisions and continually updated lists of bonuses and offers. If you choose to play online Pkv games, then you should make the decision with intelligence. The choosing of the games depends on the pros and features. The understanding of the feature can bring more cash balance in the bank account of the players. The chances of winnings are high at the tables.

We have already dealt with fearing consequences and going with our gut instincts. Here we will look at the usefulness of questioning our though processes and attempting to prove ourselves wrong. It is a little like playing devils advocate with ourselves.

First we will pose a little test. Please try to answer it before reading any further.

In front of you are four cards. These have a number on one side and a letter on the other. You can see K, Q, 3, 7. You are permitted to turn over the cards that will show it the following statement is correct. If there is a K on one side, there is a 7 on the other.

Which cards did you decide to turn over? If it was the K and the 7 then you were wrong, however you are not alone. Three quarters of people make the same mistake. The reasoning is if they have a K on one side and a 7 on the other the rule is confirmed. But the rule does not say anything about the letter that appears on the other side of the 7 so checking it out is completely irrelevant.

What you should have done was find a way in which the statement could be proven to be false, and the only way to do that is to turn over the K. If any number other than 7 appeared then the rule would have been proven to be false.

This error in thinking is known as confirmation of bias. We seek to find data that will confirm what we already believe to be true when in fact it does not. Best decisions are not made by seeking evidence to prove us correct, but evidence to prove us wrong.

Thinking this way will help us considerably when it comes to skill based casino games such as blackjack and poker. Even if all we do is acknowledge that our decisions are not entirely objective but are underpinned by our need to confirm bias can be enough to improve our whole decision making process.

Rosalinda

Written by 

Rosalinda is a game theory analyst and an avid reader. She loves studying old casino cultural history. Her friends refer to her as an interesting nerd.